Pakistan’s foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto zardari is in Goa to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit making him the first Pakistani foreign minister to visit India since 2011.
Hina Rabbani Khar met SM Krishna in Delhi 12 years ago, when circumstances were different. India and Pakistan were trying to boost trade and tensions were low between the two neighbours. Michael Kugelman of The Wilson Centre, says that the case is totally different this time. In 2019 India launched an air strike claiming that it has targeted sanctuaries used for launching and preparing attacks on its armed forces. Mike Pompeo in his memoir wrote that the two countries were on the brink of a nuclear war.
The new boarder truce which concluded in 2021 has kept things under control.
Micheal Kugleman argues that, “Today, it would only take one trigger, one provocation, to take the two sides back up the escalatory ladder.”
Expectations from the visit is however very low. No bilateral meeting is to take place between Bilawal Bhutto and his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar.
Pakistani foreign minister’s visit is being looked at a multilateral lens not bilateral.
Bilawal Bhutto is not looking to pursue reconciliation with India.
Delhi and Islamabad are both looking to keep the tensions down. Pakistan is facing an internal mess and India is concerned about the growing security challenges from China.
“There would be considerable public backlash in either country if efforts are made to pursue peace. This would be especially costly in Pakistan, where the government is already deeply unpopular and in over its head,” says Kugelman.
Political polarization in both countries makes the situation more vulnerable to uncertainty in the bilateral relations.
